Growth
Retail Sales — September 2026
Released October 15, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET · Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The read · narrated
The read
Retail sales rose eight tenths of a percent in September — and seventy-one cents of every new dollar was spent at the gas pump.
The headline is real, and it’s solid: the margin of error doesn’t reach zero. Sales rose five point seven billion dollars. Gas stations took four point one billion of it. They’re about nine cents of every retail dollar.
Now the gallons. Gas station receipts rose six point four percent. The consumer price report the day before had pump prices up nine. Paying more, buying less — about two and a half percent fewer gallons.
Take gas out, and sales rose two tenths of a percent. The Census Bureau’s own note says that cut, without autos either, can’t be told apart from zero.
So, volume. Adjust the whole month for prices, and spending rose about a tenth of a percent. In August, it rose nine tenths. The dollars held up. The stuff people actually bought nearly stopped growing.
Breadth narrowed too. In August, all thirteen categories rose. In September, eight. Restaurants were still up one point one.
Two housekeeping notes. Census rewrote the monthly history on September twenty-eighth, so the dollar levels we cited for August are lower now. And the savings cushion we said was funding spending turned out bigger in the government’s revision — we’ve corrected that page.
Here’s what that means for the Fed. A rate hike works on demand. In September, the part of spending that grew fastest was fuel — the part we said in our consumer price read a funds rate can’t reach. Measured in things, not dollars, demand barely moved.
One month is one month, and August’s volume was strong. But if the case for more tightening rests on spending, September’s version of it is mostly gasoline.
Watch volume, not dollars. October’s report lands November seventeenth.
| Measure | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sales | +0.8% m/m · September | ▲ 71% of the $5.7B gain was gas stations |
| Real retail sales | +0.1% m/m · September | ▼ after +0.9% in August — about 2.5% fewer gallons |
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026, U.S. Census Bureau, release CB26-165, October 15, 2026. Figures are seasonally adjusted, in current dollars, from the Census MARTS API; the headline ties to FRED RSAFS. The print. Retail and food services sales $745.0 billion, up 0.8% (±0.4%) from August and 6.3% (±0.5%) from September 2025. Excluding motor vehicles and parts and gasoline stations the change was 0.2%, and the Census Bureau notes that interval includes zero. Gasoline. Total sales rose $5,699 million from August; gasoline stations rose $4,071 million (71.4% of the increase) and were 9.1% of September sales. Gasoline station sales rose 6.4%; the consumer price index for gasoline (BLS, seasonally adjusted) rose 9.1%; dividing the two implies about 2.5% fewer gallons. Volume. Real retail and food services sales (FRED RRSFS, deflated by the all-items consumer price index; computed by FRED, not part of the Census release) rose 0.12% in September after 0.89% in August, and 2.5% from a year earlier. Because the deflator is all-items CPI, no category-level volume is claimed here. Breadth. Of the 13 major categories, 13 rose in August and 8 in September (current vintage). Food services and drinking places rose 1.1%. Revisions. The Census Bureau revised monthly retail estimates on September 28, 2026, incorporating the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. Our September 16 read carried August at $773.9 billion and +1.2%; August is now $739.3 billion and +1.3%, and on the revised data all 13 categories rose that month (we reported 12). The saving-rate figures cited in that read were also revised by BEA; that page carries a correction note. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 and next decides on October 28. The advance estimate for October is scheduled for November 17, 2026.