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Treasury Yields

U.S. Treasury yields and the 2-10 spread, in recent and historical context.

Why yields matter

Treasury yields are the price the U.S. government pays to borrow. They also set the floor for almost every other interest rate in the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield, in particular, is the benchmark that prices most fixed-rate mortgages, auto loans, corporate bonds, and many business loans. When the 10-year moves, the cost of borrowing for the rest of the economy moves with it.

The shape of the curve — how much yields differ across maturities from 1-month to 30-year — reveals how the bond market expects growth, inflation, and Fed policy to evolve. A steepening curve usually reflects rising growth or inflation expectations; a flattening curve reflects slowing growth expectations or a Fed nearing its policy-rate peak; an inverting curve reflects market expectations that short-term rates will be lower in the future, historically a leading signal of recession. Watching yields gives you a real-time read on those expectations, often before equity markets price in the same information.

Today's curve
U.S. Treasury yields by maturity · May 15, 2026 close
5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 20Y 30Y 4.09 4.14 4.26 4.43 4.59 5.14 5.12
Curve shapes — for reference
Inverted
Short maturities yield more than long.
Flat
Similar yields across maturities.
Steep
Long maturities yield more than short.
2-10 Year Treasury Spread
+50 bps positively sloped
+3 bps from yesterday · +2 bps from 5 days ago
Range past 90 days: +46 bps to +64 bps
Inversions (negative spread) have preceded each of the last six U.S. recessions since 1970.
2-Year, 10-Year, and Fed Funds Rate · 90-day window
Daily close · Treasury.gov par yields + FRED DFEDTARL (lower bound)
2-Year 4.09% +9 bps from yesterday · +19 bps from 5 days ago
10-Year 4.59% +12 bps from yesterday · +21 bps from 5 days ago
Fed Funds 3.50–3.75% steady since December 2025
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Feb 15 Mar 16 Apr 15 May 15 FOMC · Mar 17–18 FOMC · Apr 28–29 10Y 2Y Fed Funds
Source: U.S. Treasury (par yields) and Federal Reserve (target range lower bound, via FRED).

How to read this chart

The 2-Year Treasury reflects what bond markets expect the Fed to do over the short term.

The 10-Year Treasury reflects that same expectation plus longer-term growth and inflation expectations.

The Fed Funds Rate is where the Fed has actually set policy. When yields move away from it, the market is signaling expectations are changing.

Vertical markers indicate FOMC meeting dates. No attribution is made between meetings and yield moves — the chart shows what yields did, the markers show when the Fed met. The connection is for you to draw.

Historical context
2-10 Year Treasury spread since 1976 · NBER recessions shaded
Daily close, weekly downsampled · DGS10 − DGS2 (via FRED)
+300 +200 +100 0 −100 −200 −300 1976 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2026 +50
Source: Federal Reserve H.15 (DGS2, DGS10) via FRED. Recession dates from NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

How to read this chart

The line shows the 2-10 Year Treasury spread — 10-Year yield minus 2-Year yield — across roughly five decades. The dashed horizontal line at zero is the inversion threshold: when the line drops below zero, the curve is inverted (short-term yields exceed long-term). The grey vertical bands mark the six U.S. recessions since 1976, dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Look at where the line sits in the months before each shaded band. The 2-10 Year spread has dipped below zero ahead of every U.S. recession in this window, typically six to eighteen months before the recession officially began. No attribution is made between an inversion and what follows — the chart shows the documented pattern; the reader draws the connection. Today's value sits in the context of that fifty-year record.

The yield curve and 90-day charts show daily data through the most recent equity close. The curve chart shows yield shape across maturities. The 90-day chart tracks the 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury yields against the Fed Funds Rate target lower bound — the gap between bond-market yields and the policy rate is where Fed-policy expectations live. The 2-10 Year spread callout above the 90-day chart shows the current spread, recent moves, and 90-day range. The long-history chart below the 90-day chart shows the 2-10 Year spread across the past five decades with shaded NBER recession bands behind it — the historical record showing inversion preceding each U.S. recession since 1976. The historical line is sourced from FRED's DGS2 and DGS10 series; the most recent point on the line uses today's Treasury.gov close so the chart's right edge matches the spread callout above. The "Curve shapes" panel below the curve chart shows three archetypal shapes (inverted / flat / steep) as a visual reference; the shapes are illustrative, not drawn from market data. Sources: U.S. Treasury for the par yield curve, the 90-day 2-Year and 10-Year series, the 2-10 spread callout, and the most recent point on the long-history line; Federal Reserve H.15 (DGS2, DGS10, DFEDTARL) via FRED for the Fed Funds Rate and the historical 2-10 spread line; NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee for recession dates. Events on charts are factual markers; no attribution is made between event timing and yield motion. The reader draws the connection, or cross-references against the same date's Market Internals.