Inflation
PPI — September 2026
Released October 15, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET · Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The read · narrated
The read
The most important number in this morning’s producer report isn’t the big one. It’s what gas stations keep on a gallon. In September it fell by a quarter.
Producer prices jumped one point three percent — the Bureau calls it the largest monthly rise since March twenty twenty-two. The annual rate went to six point three. Energy alone rose almost eleven percent in the month.
Now the gallon. Wholesale gasoline rose twenty percent in September. At the pump, yesterday’s consumer report had it up nine. Last month we called the gap the last step absorbing a cost. Fuel retailing margins fell eleven percent in August. In September, twenty-five — more than twice as much.
That’s a cushion, not a fix. A margin can only shrink so far, and this report doesn’t show the floor.
Now the slower shock. Steel mill products: up twenty-eight percent over the year, and two percent in September alone. Electronic components, twenty-seven. Nonferrous metals, thirty-four. All three were running hot in February, before oil turned.
That’s where a tariff would show first: when imported metal costs more, domestic producers can charge more too. Tariffs are one possible reason — this report can’t separate them out.
Like fuel, it isn’t arriving whole. Inputs to the last stage of production, food and energy excluded: eight point two percent. Finished goods with the same exclusions: three point nine — where they’ve sat all year.
Two corrections. August was revised up: the headline to five point six, core to four point eight. And last month we said those inputs had climbed every month since April. September broke the streak — eight point four to eight point two.
Meanwhile the last step firmed. Core producer prices rose to five percent. And outside fuel, trade margins rose one point four — some sellers are widening theirs.
The bond market looked past the headline. On a morning with three reports — this one, retail sales and jobless claims — the two-year Treasury fell five basis points. It still sits seventy-seven above the Fed’s ceiling.
So here’s the picture. Energy is the shock everyone sees, and the gas station is eating it. Metals are the quieter one, and the middle of the chain is eating that. The question for October twenty-eighth is how long the middle holds.
| Measure | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PPI | +1.3% m/m · +6.3% y/y | ▲ largest monthly rise since March 2022 — energy +10.8% |
| Core PPI (ex food & energy) | +0.7% m/m · +5.0% y/y | ▲ up from 4.8% — finished goods ex F&E steady at 3.9% |
Producer Price Indexes, September 2026, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, release USDL-26-1576, October 15, 2026, pulled from the BLS API; headline and core series checked against their FRED mirrors. The print. Final demand (WPSFD4 / WPUFD4) +1.3% on the month, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% over 12 months; the description of the monthly rise as the largest since March 2022 is the Bureau’s, and was checked against the index levels. Final demand less foods and energy (WPSFD49104 / WPUFD49104) +0.7% and 5.0%. Final demand energy (WPSFD412) +10.8%; the Bureau attributes over 80 percent of the September rise in final demand goods to energy. Twelve-month changes are not seasonally adjusted; monthly changes are seasonally adjusted. Spoken and displayed figures are BLS’s published changes; the plotted core series is computed from the index levels. Revisions. BLS revised May through August. Our September 10 read aired August at 5.4% (headline) and 4.6% (core); the current figures are 5.6% and 4.8%. The gallon. Wholesale gasoline (WPS0571) +20.3% in September; the retail gasoline index in the Consumer Price Index (CUSR0000SETB01) +9.1%, both seasonally adjusted. The margin is fuels and lubricants retailing (WPS58F, seasonally adjusted), −25.0% in September and −11.1% in August (aired as −11.3% before revision) — the same series our September 10 read quoted. The release’s −30.3% is a narrower index, automotive fuels and lubricants retailing (WPU58F101, not seasonally adjusted), and is not used here. Metals and electronics. Steel mill products (WPU1017) 27.6% over 12 months and +2.2% on the month; electronic components and accessories (WPU1178) 26.8%; nonferrous metals (WPU102) 33.6%. In February 2026 the same three read 20.9%, 16.3% and 40.4%. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted. This page names tariffs as one possible reason metal and component prices are elevated; the Producer Price Index does not identify causes, and nothing here attributes any price change to them. The middle of the chain. “Inputs to the last stage of production” is inputs to stage 4 goods producers, goods excluding foods and energy (WPUID54113): 8.2% over 12 months, against 8.4% in August, and higher in each month from April through August. “Finished goods” is final demand finished goods less foods and energy (WPUFD4131): 3.9%, and between 3.7% and 3.9% in every month of 2026. The two are different populations; they are described as cost going in and price coming out, not as a ratio. Trade services margins (WPSFD423) +1.4% on the month. Market data. The 2-year Treasury yield from Treasury’s daily par yield curve: 4.82% on October 14 and 4.77% on October 15, 77 basis points above the 4.00% upper bound of the federal funds target range (FRED DFEDTARU). Advance retail sales and weekly jobless claims were released at the same 8:30 AM ET, so the move is not attributed to this report. The Federal Reserve next decides on October 28.