Inflation
CPI — October 2026
Released November 10, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET · Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The read · narrated
The read
When the Fed held last month, we said the strongest case for a second hike was goods — and that this morning’s inflation report is the first test.
One thing first: there’s no annual rate this month. Last fall’s government shutdown left no October prices to compare against. So we read the pace.
Prices rose four tenths. Core rose three tenths, a third straight month — a three point seven percent pace over three months, up from three point four.
Energy stepped back. In September, gasoline alone was over half the rise. In October, all of energy was about a seventh. At the pump, gas actually dipped; it rose only after seasonal adjustment. Over the year, it’s still up thirty-seven percent.
Airfares, last month’s one leak, rose less than half a percent.
Now the test. Goods outside food and energy rose two tenths — a fourth straight rise, about a two percent pace. Before twenty twenty-five, they were flat to falling.
This report can’t name causes. So we looked for tariffs another way: import-heavy goods, their yearly pace before twenty twenty-five against the pace since.
Toys were falling three percent a year; since, rising five and a half. Shoes and clothing: flat before, over four since. Furniture and appliances turned too, then gave some back this past year.
Not every import turned. Phones still get cheaper, nine percent a year. New cars: up under one percent. Computers rose fastest, and this report can’t separate tariffs from anything else. The pattern fits tariffs. It doesn’t prove them.
And goods didn’t carry core. Services did — a four percent pace over three months, with shelter over thirty percent of October’s increase.
The two-year Treasury rose seventeen basis points today, the most in a day since April twenty twenty-five, to four seventy-three — above where it sat before September’s hike. Last Thursday we said it was backing away from a second. The five-year inflation gauge didn’t move.
So: goods passed the test. Against a second hike, energy stepped back, expectations held, and jobs aren’t pushing. For it, two-thirds of October’s rise was core. On this report, the case got broader than goods.
This is the last of these reports before the Fed decides, December ninth. Watch services.
| Measure | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI | +0.4% m/m | ▲ no 12-month rate (shutdown gap); energy +0.7% after 5.2% |
| Core CPI (ex food & energy) | +0.3% m/m | ▲ third straight; 3.7% 3-mo pace — services 4.2%, goods 2.1% |
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, October 2026, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, release USDL-26-1685, November 10, 2026, pulled from the BLS API and tied out against the release’s summary and Table A. The print. All items +0.4% on the month and core — all items less food and energy — +0.3%, the same as in August and September; both seasonally adjusted. Energy rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September. Gasoline rose 1.0% seasonally adjusted and fell 0.7% before seasonal adjustment. The statement that shelter accounted for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase is the Bureau’s own, as was September’s that gasoline accounted for over half. Spoken and displayed monthly figures are BLS’s published changes. No 12-month rate. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, and cannot publish 12-month changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable — including all items, core, food and energy. Gasoline (37.4%) and new vehicles (0.7%) are among the few indexes that carry one; both are not seasonally adjusted. No substitute annual rate is computed here. Shares of the rise are computed, not published. BLS’s December 2025 relative importance weights (core 79.919, food 13.698, energy 6.383) were carried forward to September 2026 by each index’s price change relative to all items, then multiplied by the October seasonally adjusted change: core about 67% of the month’s increase, food about 18%, energy about 15%. The method mixes unadjusted weights with adjusted changes and is an approximation. Paces are computed, not published. Compounded and annualized from seasonally adjusted index levels over the three months to October: core 3.7%, against 3.4% for the three months to September; commodities less food and energy commodities (CUSR0000SACL1E) 2.1%; services less energy services (CUSR0000SASLE) 4.2%. Core goods rose in each month from July through October. Over January 2023 to January 2025, core goods ran at −0.2% a year. Airline fares (CUSR0000SETG01) rose 0.4% in October, against 0.2% to 2.8% in each month from March through September. Looking for tariffs. For each index, the annualized change from January 2023 to January 2025 (“before”) is set against January 2025 to October 2026 (“since”), computed from not seasonally adjusted index levels. January 2025 is used as the last month before the 2025 tariff actions; neither endpoint depends on the missing October 2025 data. Toys (CUUR0000SERE01) −3.4% → +5.5%; footwear (CUUR0000SEAE) +0.5% → +4.5%; apparel (CUUR0000SAA) +0.2% → +4.4%; furniture and bedding (CUUR0000SEHJ) −2.8% → +1.4%; appliances (CUUR0000SEHK) −4.1% → +1.9%. Over the 12 months to September 2026, furniture and bedding were −2.4% and appliances −1.0% (published). Telephone hardware (CUUR0000SEEE04) −10.4% → −9.1%. Computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants (CUUR0000SEEE01) rose 13.2% from January 2025 to October 2026, the fastest of the indexes shown. “Import-heavy” describes these categories in general terms; no import share is measured here. The Consumer Price Index does not identify causes, and nothing on this page attributes any price change to tariffs. Market data. The 2-year Treasury yield from Treasury’s daily par yield curve: 4.56% on November 9 and 4.73% on November 10, a rise of 17 basis points; the largest one-day rise since +20 on April 9, 2025, checked on FRED DGS2. On September 15, the day before the September 16 increase in the federal funds target range, it closed at 4.67%. The upper bound of the range is 4.00% (FRED DFEDTARU). The 5-year breakeven inflation rate (FRED T5YIE) was 2.25% on both days. Several Federal Reserve officials spoke on November 10 and Treasury auctioned 10-year notes, so the move is not attributed to this report alone. Callbacks. “Last month” refers to our October 28 FOMC read; “last Thursday” to our November 5 jobless claims read; “jobs aren’t pushing” to our November 5 claims and November 6 jobs reads. The Federal Reserve next decides on December 9; the November Consumer Price Index is scheduled for December 10.