Labor
Weekly Claims — Week of October 31, 2026
Released November 5, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET · Source: U.S. Department of Labor
The read · narrated
The read
A hundred eighty-nine thousand new jobless filings. The four-week average, the lowest since September nineteen sixty-nine. That was Thursday morning. By the close, stocks had sold off hard and the bond market had moved toward a softer Fed. So is the layoff gauge missing something?
The week fell six thousand, matching July’s low. The average fell for a third straight week, and last week’s record moved a month further back. All of it out of more than twice the workers of nineteen sixty-nine.
Now the collecting count. Last week we told you it had fallen below where its jump started. Revision made that fall twenty-seven thousand. Then this week it rose twenty-three thousand, to one million seven hundred eighteen thousand. Back above.
Up nineteen, down twenty-seven, up twenty-three. Its four-week average has stayed inside a band of thirty-five hundred people for five weeks. And the share of covered workers drawing benefits: one point one percent, unchanged.
The level check we run every week. Filings average: about thirty-one thousand below a year ago. The collecting count: two hundred forty-four thousand below. The share drawing: one point one, against one point three.
What this doesn’t tell you: filings count layoffs, not hiring. Tuesday’s openings read found hiring flat, and called the job market stable, not strong. Quiet filings fit that. They don’t upgrade it.
Now the market. The two-year, the yield that tracks the Fed’s path, closed Thursday at four forty-six, down twelve basis points. That’s twenty-one below where it sat before September’s hike, and still forty-six above the top of the Fed’s range. That isn’t a market pricing cuts. It’s a market backing away from a second hike.
Did this report give it a reason? On layoffs, no. We don’t see a slowdown in these numbers. On this report, last week’s answer holds: labor gives the Fed no reason to ease, and no pressure to tighten.
Two limits. This report’s window closed October thirty-first, so it can’t see Thursday. And claims are a slow witness: layoffs follow a slowdown, they don’t announce one. Whatever moved Thursday’s market, it isn’t in these numbers.
October’s jobs report is out, and it gets its own read. Next claims: Thursday, November twelfth.
| Measure | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| New filings, 4-week average | 194,750 · Oct 31 | ▼ −2,250 — lowest since September 1969 |
| Still collecting, 4-week average | 1,709,500 · Oct 24 | ▲ +1,000 — five weeks inside a 3,500 band |
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, week ending October 31, 2026, U.S. Department of Labor (Employment and Training Administration), release USDL 26-1680-NAT, November 5, 2026; series from FRED (ICSA, IC4WSA, CCSA, CC4WSA, IURSA), tied out against the release table. All figures on this page are seasonally adjusted, which is this publication’s standing practice for this release; the unadjusted series swings on seasonal patterns and is not used here, in any form. The print. New filings 189,000, down 6,000 from the prior week’s revised 195,000 (our October 29 read carried it at 194,000); the four-week average 194,750, down 2,250 from a revised 197,000 (our October 29 read carried it at 196,750). Insured unemployment, which the release reports one week behind filings, was 1,718,000 for the week ending October 24, up 23,000 from a revised 1,695,000; our October 29 read carried that week at 1,701,000 and its fall at 21,000, now 27,000 from 1,722,000 the week before. Its four-week average was 1,709,500, up 1,000 from a revised 1,708,500; our October 29 read carried that week at 1,710,000, up 500, and the revision makes that week a fall of 1,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.1%, unchanged. Lowest since 1969. On the full FRED history of the four-week average (from 1967), the most recent week at 194,750 is the week ending September 27, 1969, and the most recent week below it is the week ending September 6, 1969 (193,750); no week since 1970 is at or below it. The weekly 189,000 matches the week ending July 18, 2026, and no other week since 1970 is at or below it. The workforce. Total nonfarm payrolls (BLS, FRED PAYEMS) were 70.9 million in September 1969 and about 159 million in the latest data. A year ago (same week, 2025): filings four-week average 225,500; insured unemployment 1,962,000; insured rate 1.3%. The two-year. Treasury.gov daily par yield curve: 4.46% on November 5, 2026, 4.58% on November 4, and 4.67% on September 15, the day before the September hike. The top of the Federal Reserve’s target range is 4.00% (FRED DFEDTARU). The stock market’s move on November 5 is described qualitatively, and this report does not establish its cause. Cited from our earlier reads. Hiring flat and “stable, not strong” from our September JOLTS read (November 3); “a slow witness” from our claims read of October 8; no reason to ease and no pressure to tighten from our claims read of October 29. The Federal Reserve next decides on December 9. The October Employment Situation was released on November 6 and is covered in its own read. The next weekly claims report is scheduled for November 12.