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Look Beneath the Headlines.

Independent research for readers who want to understand what economic data tells us and how markets react. A tool for forming your own view — built to provide clarity, not opinion.

Market Internals

Equity indexes finished modestly higher today, with the Russell 2000 leading the tape and ten of eleven sectors above their 200-day moving averages. Credit spreads tightened across the week, with HY OAS easing two basis points and high-yield ETFs firming. Treasury yields paused at the long end while the front end ticked up modestly. Volatility eased into the mid-sixteens with tail-hedge demand continuing to unwind from the prior week's intraweek spike. Equal-weighted indexes recovered ground on the day but still trail cap-weighted ones over the past month. The story today sits in the layers that healed — credit, breadth, and positioning all improved alongside the broader tape, even as the prior week's narrow-rally residue hasn't fully repaired.
Below: the data
Regime read by layer
LayerStateNote
YieldsGreen2Y at 4.08%, 10Y at 4.57%; both tenors stable over the past five sessions (+8 bps / +10 bps) with the 10-year flat on the day.
CreditGreenHY OAS at 280 bps, edging tighter (−2 bps 5d); high-yield ETFs firming over the past five sessions while investment-grade and EM credit ETFs held softer.
Funding & LiquidityGreenShort-term funding rates easing (SOFR −9 bps over 5 days); T-bill−SOFR spread shows no stress-driven divergence and money supply growth is normal (+5.0% YoY).
Volatility structureYellowVIX at 16.76, in the mid-teens; VIX term structure in deep contango (3-month/spot 0.84); tail-hedge demand unwinding (SKEW from 142 to 132).
Equity breadthYellowEqual-weight S&P trailing cap-weighted by 1.0% over 20 days (RSP/SPY 0.276) — narrowing participation against a backdrop of broader same-day sector strength.
Positioning (P/C)GreenIndex P/C at 0.85 (call-heavy); single-stock ETP P/C at 0.98 (near neutral).
Dealer gamma context (SPY)
Spot$742.72+0.47% above gamma flip ($739.26)
RegimeLong gammadealers dampen intraday range — FYI dealer-flow context, not a tactical level
Prices as of May 21 close
MetricLevel5d Δ
SPX7,445.72−0.74%
NDX (Nasdaq 100)29,357.27−0.75%
RUT (Russell 2000)2,843.45−0.69%
VIX16.76−0.50
2Y Treasury yield4.08%+8 bps
10Y Treasury yield4.57%+10 bps
DXY99.19+0.31%
Market breadth
% SPX above 200-day MA55.4%278 of 502 constituents
Sectors above 200-day MA10 of 11below: XLF (Financials)
Sector participation
ETFSectorClosevs 200d MA5d Δ20d Δ
XLKInformation Technology178.60+23.98%−0.50%+14.60%
XLEEnergy59.13+19.22%+1.83%+3.77%
XLPConsumer Staples84.66+4.04%−0.38%+1.41%
XLVHealth Care148.15+0.22%+1.04%+1.31%
XLREReal Estate44.50+6.07%+1.34%+1.23%
XLYConsumer Discretionary118.70+1.15%+0.03%+0.82%
XLFFinancials51.73−1.65%+0.86%−0.14%
XLCCommunication Services116.10+0.80%−0.86%−1.10%
XLIIndustrials170.53+5.99%−2.28%−2.03%
XLUUtilities45.00+1.35%+0.22%−2.36%
XLBMaterials50.02+5.32%−3.19%−3.45%