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Look Beneath the Headlines.

Independent research for readers who want to understand what economic data tells us and how markets react. A tool for forming your own view — built to provide clarity, not opinion.

Market Internals

Equity indexes advanced broadly today, with the Russell 2000 outpacing large-caps and most stocks participating in the move. Treasury yields eased across the curve, with the 10-year falling 10 basis points in a single session after a stretch of higher closes earlier in the week. Credit spreads edged modestly wider over the past five sessions and credit ETFs stayed soft, though the move remained directional rather than spread-driven. Volatility eased into the mid-seventeens with tail-hedge demand continuing to unwind. Market internals stayed narrow when measured over the past month — equal-weighted indexes still trailing cap-weighted ones. The story today sits in the rates layer — the single-session yield relief lifted the broader tape, even as breadth and credit residue from the prior week haven't yet repaired.
Below: the data
Regime read by layer
LayerStateNote
YieldsGreen2Y at 4.04%, 10Y at 4.57% — both tenors eased today (−9 bps / −10 bps) after a stretch of higher closes earlier in the week (+6 bps / +11 bps over five sessions).
CreditYellowHY OAS at 286 bps, edging wider (+4 bps 5d); credit ETFs broadly negative over the past five sessions (HYG, LQD, BKLN, EMB all lower) — directional softness without a spread-driven stress signal.
Funding & LiquidityGreenShort-term funding rates easing (SOFR −9 bps over 5 days); T-bill−SOFR spread shows no stress-driven divergence and money supply growth is normal (+5.0% YoY).
Volatility structureYellowVIX at 17.44, in the high teens; VIX term structure in deep contango (3-month/spot 0.84); tail-hedge demand unwinding (SKEW from 139 to 136).
Equity breadthRedEqual-weight S&P trailing cap-weighted by 1.0% over 20 days (RSP/SPY 0.275) — narrowing participation alongside the mixed tape.
Positioning (P/C)YellowIndex P/C at 0.80 (call-heavy); single-stock ETP P/C at 1.03 (modest defensive hedging).
Dealer gamma context (SPY)
Spot$741.25+0.29% above gamma flip ($739.06)
RegimeLong gammadealers dampen intraday range — FYI dealer-flow context, not a tactical level
Prices as of May 20 close
MetricLevel5d Δ
SPX7,432.97−0.15%
NDX (Nasdaq 100)29,297.70−0.24%
RUT (Russell 2000)2,817.36−0.93%
VIX17.44−0.43
2Y Treasury yield4.04%+6 bps
10Y Treasury yield4.57%+11 bps
DXY99.12+0.65%
Market breadth
% SPX above 200-day MA53.8%270 of 502 constituents
Sectors above 200-day MA9 of 11below: XLF (Financials), XLV (Health Care)
Sector participation
ETFSectorClosevs 200d MA5d Δ20d Δ
XLKInformation Technology177.14+23.17%+0.16%+12.05%
XLEEnergy59.80+20.77%+3.77%+5.77%
XLPConsumer Staples85.52+5.12%+0.94%+4.15%
XLREReal Estate44.43+5.94%+0.50%+2.23%
XLVHealth Care147.13−0.42%+0.29%+0.51%
XLIIndustrials170.73+6.18%−1.66%−0.18%
XLUUtilities44.51+0.27%−0.36%−0.80%
XLYConsumer Discretionary117.94+0.54%−0.66%−0.83%
XLFFinancials51.66−1.78%+1.31%−1.05%
XLCCommunication Services116.10+0.84%−0.57%−1.51%
XLBMaterials49.72+4.75%−4.49%−4.07%