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Look Beneath the Headlines.
Independent research for readers who want to understand what economic data tells us and how markets react. A tool for forming your own view — built to provide clarity, not opinion.
Market Internals
Equity indexes advanced broadly today, with the Russell 2000 outpacing large-caps and most stocks participating in the move. Treasury yields eased across the curve, with the 10-year falling 10 basis points in a single session after a stretch of higher closes earlier in the week. Credit spreads edged modestly wider over the past five sessions and credit ETFs stayed soft, though the move remained directional rather than spread-driven. Volatility eased into the mid-seventeens with tail-hedge demand continuing to unwind. Market internals stayed narrow when measured over the past month — equal-weighted indexes still trailing cap-weighted ones. The story today sits in the rates layer — the single-session yield relief lifted the broader tape, even as breadth and credit residue from the prior week haven't yet repaired.
◆Below: the data
Regime read by layer
Layer
State
Note
Yields
Green
2Y at 4.04%, 10Y at 4.57% — both tenors eased today (−9 bps / −10 bps) after a stretch of higher closes earlier in the week (+6 bps / +11 bps over five sessions).
Credit
Yellow
HY OAS at 286 bps, edging wider (+4 bps 5d); credit ETFs broadly negative over the past five sessions (HYG, LQD, BKLN, EMB all lower) — directional softness without a spread-driven stress signal.
Funding & Liquidity
Green
Short-term funding rates easing (SOFR −9 bps over 5 days); T-bill−SOFR spread shows no stress-driven divergence and money supply growth is normal (+5.0% YoY).
Volatility structure
Yellow
VIX at 17.44, in the high teens; VIX term structure in deep contango (3-month/spot 0.84); tail-hedge demand unwinding (SKEW from 139 to 136).
Equity breadth
Red
Equal-weight S&P trailing cap-weighted by 1.0% over 20 days (RSP/SPY 0.275) — narrowing participation alongside the mixed tape.
Positioning (P/C)
Yellow
Index P/C at 0.80 (call-heavy); single-stock ETP P/C at 1.03 (modest defensive hedging).
Dealer gamma context (SPY)
Spot
$741.25
+0.29% above gamma flip ($739.06)
Regime
Long gamma
dealers dampen intraday range — FYI dealer-flow context, not a tactical level