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Look Beneath the Headlines.
Independent research for readers who want to understand what economic data tells us and how markets react. A tool for forming your own view — built to provide clarity, not opinion.
Market Internals
Equity indexes finished modestly higher today, with the Russell 2000 leading the tape and ten of eleven sectors above their 200-day moving averages. Credit spreads tightened across the week, with HY OAS easing two basis points and high-yield ETFs firming. Treasury yields paused at the long end while the front end ticked up modestly. Volatility eased into the mid-sixteens with tail-hedge demand continuing to unwind from the prior week's intraweek spike. Equal-weighted indexes recovered ground on the day but still trail cap-weighted ones over the past month. The story today sits in the layers that healed — credit, breadth, and positioning all improved alongside the broader tape, even as the prior week's narrow-rally residue hasn't fully repaired.
◆Below: the data
Regime read by layer
Layer
State
Note
Yields
Green
2Y at 4.08%, 10Y at 4.57%; both tenors stable over the past five sessions (+8 bps / +10 bps) with the 10-year flat on the day.
Credit
Green
HY OAS at 280 bps, edging tighter (−2 bps 5d); high-yield ETFs firming over the past five sessions while investment-grade and EM credit ETFs held softer.
Funding & Liquidity
Green
Short-term funding rates easing (SOFR −9 bps over 5 days); T-bill−SOFR spread shows no stress-driven divergence and money supply growth is normal (+5.0% YoY).
Volatility structure
Yellow
VIX at 16.76, in the mid-teens; VIX term structure in deep contango (3-month/spot 0.84); tail-hedge demand unwinding (SKEW from 142 to 132).
Equity breadth
Yellow
Equal-weight S&P trailing cap-weighted by 1.0% over 20 days (RSP/SPY 0.276) — narrowing participation against a backdrop of broader same-day sector strength.
Positioning (P/C)
Green
Index P/C at 0.85 (call-heavy); single-stock ETP P/C at 0.98 (near neutral).
Dealer gamma context (SPY)
Spot
$742.72
+0.47% above gamma flip ($739.26)
Regime
Long gamma
dealers dampen intraday range — FYI dealer-flow context, not a tactical level