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Look Beneath the Headlines.
Independent research that captures what markets price — across rates, credit, volatility, and breadth. A tool for forming your own view, built to show whether markets are moving with, against, or ignoring the headlines.
Market Internals
Equity indexes closed at fresh highs Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 both up sharply and the S&P 500 reaching a 20-day high. The cost of borrowing for the riskiest companies tightened nine basis points over the past five sessions, with credit ETFs broadly higher. Treasury yields eased across the curve — the 2-year closed at 4.01% and the 10-year at 4.50%, both lower on the day and lower on the week — meaning the cost of money fell at the front and belly of the curve, the part that prices mortgages and short-term corporate borrowing. Volatility held in the high teens, and the cost of insurance against a sharp drop continued to unwind from the prior week. Underneath, breadth weakened — equal-weighted indexes lagged cap-weighted ones, and single-stock options positioning stayed defensive. The story is concentration: a handful of mega-cap names carried the indexes while the broader market trailed — a rally that looks healthy on the headline but reads thinner once the composition is visible.
◆The evidence
Regime read by layer
Layer
State
Note
Yields
Green
2Y at 4.01%, 10Y at 4.50% — both easing modestly over the past five sessions (−6 bps / −11 bps); financial conditions loosening at the front and belly of the curve.
Credit
Green
HY OAS at 274 bps, tightening (−9 bps 5d); credit ETFs broadly positive over the past five sessions.
Funding & Liquidity
Green
Short-term funding rates stable (SOFR +0 bps over 5 days); T-bill−SOFR spread shows no stress-driven divergence and money supply growth is normal (+5.2% YoY).
Volatility structure
Green
VIX at 17.01, in the high teens; VIX term structure in deep contango (3-month/spot 0.86); tail-hedge demand unwinding (SKEW from 146 to 137).
Equity breadth
Red
Equal-weight S&P trailing cap-weighted by 0.6% over 20 days (RSP/SPY 0.277) — narrowing participation alongside the index pushing to a 20-day high.
Positioning (P/C)
Yellow
Index P/C at 0.91 (neutral); single-stock ETP P/C at 1.04 (defensive hedging).
Dealer gamma context (SPY)
Spot
$750.59
+0.79% above the dealer flip level ($744.66)
Regime
Long gamma
dealers are positioned to dampen intraday swings rather than amplify them — a calmer-tape context, not a price target.