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Markets, translated. Signal, not noise.

Independent research for readers who want to understand what economic data tells us and how markets react. A tool for forming your own view — built to provide clarity, not opinion.

Market Internals

Equity indexes pulled back as volatility ticked up and the dollar firmed against major peers. Selling was broad — small-caps lagged, decliners outpaced advancers, and equal-weighted indexes underperformed cap-weighted ones. Long-end Treasury yields firmed, with the 30-year above 5%.
Reading from May 15 close: Red
Summarizes the Regime Read by Layer below — observational, not a directional call on markets.
Below: the data behind the verdict
Regime read by layer
LayerStateNote
CreditYellowSpreads stable on the week; credit ETFs broadly negative over the past week.
Funding & LiquidityGreenShort-term rates easing; inflation expectations stable.
Volatility structureYellowVIX in the high teens; term structure in contango; longer-dated tail-hedging demand firming.
Equity breadthRedNarrowing participation — fewer stocks above their short-term averages; decliners outpaced advancers alongside the index pullback.
Positioning (P/C)YellowPut/call ratios show modest defensive hedging on single stocks; index positioning neutral.
Prices as of May 15 close
MetricLevel5d Δ
SPX7,408.50+0.13%
NDX (Nasdaq 100)29,125.20−0.38%
RUT (Russell 2000)2,793.30−2.37%
VIX18.43+1.24
2Y Treasury yield4.09%+19 bps
10Y Treasury yield4.59%+21 bps
DXY99.30+1.49%
Market breadth
% SPX above 200-day MA51.0%256 of 502 constituents
Sectors above 200-day MA7 of 11below: XLF (Financials), XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health Care), XLY (Consumer Discretionary)
Sector participation
ETFSectorClosevs 200d MA5d Δ20d Δ
XLKInformation Technology176.26+23.13%+0.42%+14.20%
XLEEnergy59.44+20.69%+6.71%+8.03%
XLPConsumer Staples84.64+4.15%+0.55%+2.64%
XLIIndustrials171.40+6.78%−1.04%−1.22%
XLVHealth Care145.10−1.64%+1.12%−2.49%
XLFFinancials51.10−2.86%−0.27%−2.54%
XLCCommunication Services116.08+0.94%−0.74%−2.54%
XLREReal Estate43.23+3.17%−2.66%−2.81%
XLBMaterials50.30+6.17%−2.50%−3.05%
XLYConsumer Discretionary116.53−0.57%−3.05%−3.22%
XLUUtilities43.87−1.13%−1.90%−4.96%
Dealer gamma context (SPY)
Spot$739.17−0.87% below gamma flip ($745.58)
RegimeShort gammadealers amplify intraday range — FYI dealer-flow context, not a tactical level